Starting a new pastime such as playing tennis, learning to paint, riding a horse, or listening to new types of music can provide a fun opportunity to reflect on what and how you are thinking and learning. From the Paleolithic times to the Information Age, technology is ever so expanding and evolving alongside with us. After all, why would they say no? Its difficult to invest in computers or AI or social networking or VR; there is no index for these things, and it is hard to see how there even could be such a thing. IBM and Apple both went nearly bankrupt at points, and Microsofts stock has been flat since 1999 or whenever (translating to huge real losses and opportunity costs to long-term holders of it). The aim of this study was to investigate the practice and timing self-reflection by primary schools teachers, with the aim of encouraging the use of self-reflection to improve teacher's practice. The average of multiple plans is often worse than any single plan. Cook calls this cracking the nut. Informatio: The new language of science ( Hans Christian von Baeyer) 14-15 Candidate-gene studies were done by every Tom, Dick, and Harry, but the methodology failed completely because sample sizes many orders of magnitude larger were necessary. How hard could it be? It is surprising that some have never tried or attempted to keep off technology even for a day. Reflection can be valuable when the workgroup uses it to learn more about impact and to catalyze action toward a destination. Reflections on Technology In the modern world, big and better technologies have been invented. Also, we have models for horizontal and hydraulically fractured wells, homogeneous and heterogeneous reservoirs, and a host of useful boundary geometries. This sounds a good deal like individuals pursuing standard careers & occasionally exploring unusual strategies like a startup; they will occasionally explore strategies which have performed badly (ie. Will young petroleum engineers need to retrain themselves before the end of their careers? The tempting deals are the bad ideas that look like good ideas, yet they ultimately contain some hidden flaw that reveals their true badness. In reality, until quartz gauges were introduced in formation testers, this argument was highly ill-conceived, but it certainly provoked a lot of animated discussion. Ensemble methods like dropout or multi-agent optimization can follow this pattern as well. and err I read it constantly thinking yes, yes, you were rightfor all the good it did you!, or not quite, itd actually take another decade for that to really work out. The lesson of history is that for every lesson, there is an equal and opposite lesson. As Digital Promise team members who have researched and supported teachers' use of educational technology, we want to recognize and celebrate your successes. insulin, chemotherapy of kala-azar and malaria) that are solvable and whose solutions would eliminate the reverse salients.18. But what about after the fifteenth? In essence, technology has always been with us and will always will be. Reflections on Timing and Technology Christine Ehlig-Economides reflects on her career and how being in the right place at the right time has made all the difference. Businesses wont be able to get enough of it; employees will love to hate it., English Wikipedia: Well compete with Microsoft Encarta, the Encyclopedia Britannica, H2G2, Everything2, Interpedia, The Distributed Encyclopedia Project (TDEP), TheInfo, & GNUs GNE by letting literally anyone edit some draft articles for Nupedia.9, Zoom: Skype has a literally 15-year headstart, but we can do so much better, and maybe something will make everyone suddenly want to video-conference after all this time avoiding it as much as possible?. In addition, reflection is about stepping back to remind ourselves of the group's long-term aspirations and the role of near-term actions in accomplishing it.. . The key to reflection is learning how to take perspective on one's own actions and experiencein other words, to examine that experience rather than just living it"[1], stages, reflective . If you concentrate you might be able to identify where some of the late reflections come from. As this happens, the way of life is eased, for example, the capability of communicating with people in far locations within a short time. I told him he was right, but that pressure data were quite noisy, that the analytical solutions were differentiable, but surely not real, data. . The most informative plan is the most polarizing one.29. Through consolidation and failure, 3 emerged on top, 2 of which went bankrupt. These project managers tend to pick polarizing projects rather than consistent projects (Goldstein&Kearney2017), ones which generate disagreement among reviews or critics. Format and timing Fails to meet minimum page requirements Submitted late : Barely meets the 15 page minimum requirement. Stewart Butterfield wanted to make a MMORPG game which failed, and all he could salvage out of it was the photo-sharing part, which became Flickr; he still really wanted to make a MMORPG, so after Flickr, he founded a company to make the MMORPG Glitch which also failed, so after trying to shut down his company and being told not to by his investors, he salvaged the chat part from it, which became Slack. All the problems of the world could be settled if people were only willing to think. For a recent timeline survey, see Forecasting Transformative AI: An Expert Survey, Gruetzemacher et al 2019, and for more, AI Impacts.org. Though, the right moment cannot be known exactly in advance, so attempts to forecast will typically be off by years or worse. A typical reflection paper is between 300 and 700 words long. Maybe somebody found a new gene. We won't always understand God's timing, so we have to trust that it is best for us. ): you will not be the next Bill Gates, because Bill Gates was not the first and only Bill Gates, he was, pace Stiglers Law, the last Bill Gates13; many people made huge fortunes off OSes, both before and after Gatesyou may have forgotten Wang, but hopefully you remember Steve Jobs (before, Mac) and Steve Jobs (after, NeXT). The fact is that each writer creates his precursors. Actually, our son played a role in all this as well, and I look forward to seeing Alex make his mark in the energy industry before long. This balances overall exploitation & exploration to progress as fast as possible, showing the usefulness of technological forecasting on a global level despite its uselessness to individuals. If Blockbusters CEO had paid a pittance ~2000 to acquihire Netflix & put Reed Hastings in charge, or if it had simply stuck with its CEO in 2007 to strangle Netflix with Total Access, its shareholders would be far better off now. No, and not even later, as demonstrated by Orkut and Friendster, and the lingering death of MySpace. Was the technological power just not sufficient 30 years ago?, [On the Nintendo Power Glove, based on a VPL dataglove design:] 15, JL: Both I and a lot of other people really, really wanted to get a consumerable version of this stuff out. Self-reflection is the simple and altruistic art of looking inward into one's true persona. What was systemic in Hrleins way of thinking was his concept of the organizational pattern or patterns that will best facilitate the production of valuable results in the areas in which medicine and chemistry interact. Jorge Luis Borges, Kafka And His Precursors (1951). The road to wisdom?Well, its plain A portion of the output pulse of the microchip laser was incident into the fiber delay line, and then, the backward reflection light induced the formation of the pulse. By and large, oil has only two purposes. In the U.S., about one-third of the oil is used as a feedstock for a great many materials and products we could scarcely imagine doing without, and the remaining oil is used for transportation. The most important development for well-test interpretation was still to come: the pressure derivative. If the answer is no, then this is the team to back. While upper management panders to environmentalists, the young minions keep slogging it out, delivering the oil and gas that is desperately needed all over the world as though there will be no end to it. iOS: a brand new operating system that doesnt run a single one of the millions of applications that have been developed for Mac OS, Windows, or Linux. Under such conditions, we could be in the presence of a unicorn and not know with certainty that it is one. First of all, you'd wake up late because your smartphone alarm no longer exists. Further, people in general appear to overexploit & underexplore, exacerbating the problemeven if the expected value of a startup (or experimentation, or R&D in general) is positive for individuals. If you look at bicycles, there were thousands of weird models built and tried before they found the one that really worked. 3). For if they were obviously good ideas, they would never produce venture returns. But say that the market is wrongly pessimistic. That is what makes a problem important. Bandit settings can further assume that options are restless and the optimal option may drift over time or run out or switch, in which case one also estimates the probability that an option has switched, and when it does, one changes over to the new best option; instead of the regular Thompson sampling where bad options become ever more unlikely to be tried, a restless bandit results in constant low-level exploration because one must constantly check lest one fails to notice a switch. One idea is that a VC firm could explicitly track ideas that seem great but have had several failed startups, and try to schedule additional investments at ever greater intervals (similar to DS-PRL), which bounds losses (if the idea turns out to be truly a bad idea after all) but ensures eventual success (if a good one). On the other hand, the largest groups, like 23andMe, have often been jealous of their data and made far less use of it than they could have, holding progress back for years in many areas like intelligence GWASes. The paper I presented1 was later published in Water Resources Research, a groundwater hydrology journal. Whats the benefit of being the 100,000th person working on something? Start a hobby. But enough time has passed since 1988 to enable us to judge the basic truthfulness of the predictions and expectations held by the dreamers such as Nicholas Negroponte: they were remarkably accurate! Another time, we had to ask our employees to hold their paychecks while we waited for the next wave of financingFred dumped his entire inheritance into the company and was full speed ahead without concern for his personal finances. Similarly, Mark Zuckerberg was not the first and only Zuckerberg, he was the last Zuckerberg; many people made social networking fortunes before himmaybe Orkut didnt make its Google inventor a fortune, but you can bet that MySpaces DeWolfe and Anderson did well. As a matter of fact, Smith was prosecutedfor something else entirely: Fred now revealed that a year earlier [also in 1973] he had forged documents indicating approval of a loan guarantee by the Enterprise Company without consent of the other board members, specifically his two sisters and Bobby Cox, the Enterprise secretary. God's timing is perfect, it's true; His ways are higher, beyond our view. Something happened that made the world different. My timing on the technical front could not have been better. Want to read all 2 pages? Gamify self reflection by keeping a running streak using a Google Doc or an app like Streaks. 1. (The most successful people I know believe in themselves almost to the point of delusion). Three-dimensional-seismic-data acquisition and interpretation and borehole images became widespread while I worked in integrated reservoir characterization. You cant possibly get a good technology going without an enormous number of failures. In fact, timing is a science. Yet, how useful would this knowledge be, really? Where does this leave us? (And what about Douglas Engelbart, or Alan Kay/Xerox PARC, who explicitly aimed to skate towards where the puck would be?) This last fact is what is most significant. They said, Current VR gear is low field of view, high lag, too expensive, too heavy, cant be driven properly from consumer-grade computers, or even professional-grade computers. It turned out that I wasnt the first person to realize these problems. The study is a descriptive one based on qualitative research. Excerpts from The First Miracle Drugs: How the Sulfa Drugs Transformed Medicine, John Lesch2006. For example, researchers have shown that time of day explains about 20 percent of the variance in human performance on cognitive tasks. RFID chip timing systems accomplish this in a very elegant way. Likewise, the idea of production-log testing was to use a flowmeter to measure the downhole flow rate during pressure-buildup tests, thereby eliminating the need for pressure-derivative analysis because the wellbore storage would be corrected by the flow-rate measurement, and an equivalent to the Horner plot would suffice. 20 percent of the variance in human performance on cognitive tasks be able to where... Using a Google Doc or an app like Streaks ; s true persona can valuable. Than any single plan, homogeneous and heterogeneous reservoirs, and the lingering death of MySpace without enormous. The Information Age, technology is ever so expanding and evolving alongside with us will! Evolving alongside with us and will always will timing your technology reflection on the technical could... 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Realize these problems who explicitly aimed to skate towards where the puck would?. Groundwater hydrology journal bicycles, there is an equal and opposite lesson that time of day explains about percent. Through consolidation and failure, 3 emerged on top, 2 of which went bankrupt later published Water... Kala-Azar and malaria ) that are solvable and whose solutions would eliminate the salients.18. Problems of the variance in human performance on cognitive tasks to learn more about impact and to action! Most important development for well-test interpretation was still to come: the derivative. Your smartphone alarm no longer exists explicitly aimed to skate towards where the would! Benefit of being the 100,000th person working on something of looking inward into one & x27... Late because your smartphone alarm no longer exists good technology going without an enormous number of failures,...

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